Research
PLUS Economy research seminar
The Department of Econonomics of the Paris Lodron University of Salzburg (PLUS) invites researchers to present and discuss their latest research in economics and management.
Our research seminar is Tuesdays from 17:00–18:30. On-site talks take place in room HS 241 (EBMÖOG2.01). Online talks take place on Zoom. If you want to attend the seminar, please contact Lisa Windsteiger.
| 17.3.2025 (on-site) | Title: Tradeable Import Certificates: A Promising Instrument to Support Domestic Production in Strategic Sectors? Speaker: Sebastian Kranz (Uni Ulm) Abstract: Over the past decade, governments in advanced and emerging economies alike have rediscovered a vocabulary of “strategic sectors,” “resilience,” and “economic security.” The Trump administration’s call to bring manufacturing back to the United States, Europe’s debates about “strategic autonomy,” and the scramble for vaccines, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and semiconductors during the Covid-19 pandemic are emblematic. Supply-chain breakdowns, fears of overreliance on geopolitical rivals, diminished bargaining power in international negotiations, and the need to ramp up production quickly in the event of armed conflict or other emergencies have elevated production volumes in certain sectors from a matter of efficiency to a matter of statecraft. We revisit Warren Buffett’s (2003) proposal of tradeable import certificates (TIC) given countries have concerns for minimum production capacities in a strategic sector. We analyse benefits and drawbacks in a theoretical model. Given competitive markets, TIC allow allow to combine strategic concerns and benefits from trade in an efficient and transparent fashion. Moreover, they can effectively reduce incentives for other countries to deviate from trade agreements via hidden subsidies or non-tariff trade barriers. However, TIC can have severe adverse effects if there are domestic producers with market power in the certificate market. |
| 5.5.2025 (on-site) | Title: Economic Conditions and Far-Right Support – Places or People? Speaker: Charlotte Bartels (Uni Leipzig) Abstract: Regional economic decline is argued to be a major factor behind the recent rise of far-right support in liberal democracies. We generalize this finding using a unique county-level panel covering the fall (1949-1972) and rise (1972-today) of far-right voting in West Germany. Our results show that regional economic ascent predicts the initial fall of the far-right just as economic decline predicts its rise. We then combine the county-level panel with individual-level survey data to — for the first time — test the relative importance of regional (places) and individual (people) economic conditions for far-right support. Changes of household income are more predictive of changes in far-right support than regional growth. |
| 19.5.2025 (on-site) | Title: When (Declaring) Work Doesn’t Pay: An Experiment with Welfare Recipients Speaker: Andreas Peichl (LMU und ifo) Abstract: We study how marginal effective tax rates of means-tested social welfare programs affect labor supply in the formal and informal sector. In a conjoint experiment, German welfare recipients report which jobs they might accept under different policy scenarios, varied in a between-subjects treatment design. We find that in addition to their negative effect on labor supply in the formal sector, higher transfer withdrawal rates increase the probability that job offers in the informal sector are accepted. These results provide novel evidence on the adverse implications of high transfer withdrawal rates and highlight the need for reform initiatives aiming at stronger labor supply incentives. |
| 2.6.2025 (on-site) | Title: The Effect of Airbnb on Housing Prices: Evidence from the 2017 Solar Eclipse Speaker: Denvil Duncan (Indiana University) Abstract: This study exploits the 2017 solar eclipse as a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of Airbnb activity on housing prices. The eclipse created a temporary demand shock that induced a persistent increase in Airbnb supply. Using an IV/2SLS framework, we find that a 1\% increase in Airbnb listings raises housing prices by 0.037–0.043\%, a magnitude consistent with prior studies. We find no evidence of a displacement effect suggesting that the price response is driven by the capitalization of rental income from utilizing excess housing capacity. Our findings suggest that partial bans on investor listings may have limited efficacy in improving affordability. |
| 9.6.2025 (ATTENTION different room and time = Europasaal HS 240, 18:15-19:15) | PUBLIC LECTURE – Edmundsburg, Europasaal/HS 240 Title: Mit der Physik wirtschaften: Systemische Effizienz als Grundlage für Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in unsicheren Zeiten Speaker: Sigrid Stagl (WU Wien) Abstract: Geopolitische Konflikte, volatile Energiepreise und steigende fiskalische Belastungen legen die strukturellen Schwächen fossiler Energiesysteme offen. Viele europäische Volkswirtschaften – darunter Österreich – sind nach wie vor stark von importierten fossilen Energieträgern abhängig. Diese Abhängigkeit verursacht nicht nur hohe Treibhausgasemissionen, sondern auch erhebliche gesellschaftliche Kosten: wiederkehrende Inflationsschübe durch fossile Energiepreisschocks („Fossilflation“), milliardenschwere Kapitalabflüsse ins Ausland, geopolitische Verwundbarkeit sowie langfristige Umwelt- und Klimaschäden. Gleichzeitig steht die Klimapolitik unter politischem Druck: Instrumente wie die CO₂-Bepreisung oder der Emissionshandel werden zunehmend infrage gestellt, während kurzfristige Maßnahmen wie Steuersenkungen oder Preisdeckel diskutiert werden. Aus Perspektive der ökologischen Ökonomie verfehlen solche Ansätze die eigentliche Herausforderung. Entscheidend ist nicht die kurzfristige Dämpfung von Preisen, sondern die strukturelle Transformation von Energie- und Produktionssystemen. Eine Wirtschaft, die stärker auf Elektrifizierung, erneuerbare Energien, Energieeffizienz und Kreislaufwirtschaft setzt, orientiert sich an physikalischen Realitäten und reduziert systemische Ineffizienzen. Investitionen in erneuerbare Energien erzeugen eine höhere inländische Wertschöpfung, verringern Importabhängigkeiten und stabilisieren die Preisentwicklung langfristig. Gleichzeitig können zirkuläre Produktionssysteme den Ressourcenverbrauch und damit die Exposition gegenüber globalen Rohstoffrisiken deutlich senken. Stagl argumentiert, dass die Transformation zu erneuerbaren Energiesystemen und einer Kreislaufwirtschaft nicht nur klima- und umweltpolitisch notwendig ist, sondern auch eine zentrale industrie- und wirtschaftspolitische Strategie darstellt. In Zeiten geopolitischer Unsicherheit und volatiler Rohstoffmärkte erhöht eine solche Transformation die Effizienz von Volkswirtschaften und damit ihre Resilienz, Stabilität und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Statt kurzfristiger Preisinterventionen sind stabile institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen, konsistente CO₂-Preissignale und der Abbau klimaschädlicher Subventionen erforderlich. Nur so lässt sich eine Wirtschaftsweise etablieren, die langfristig mit der Physik und der Natur im Einklang steht und dadurch ökonomisch erfolgreicher ist. |
| 16.6.2025 (on-site) | Title: Heterogeneous Risk Preferences, Entrepreneurship, and Wealth Speaker: Brigitte Hochmuth (Uni Kopenhagen) Abstract: This paper studies how individual risk attitudes shape occupational choice and wealth accumulation. Using self-reported individual risk preferences from the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP), we estimate that a one-unit increase in risk tolerance raises the probability of a worker transitioning to self-employment by 10 percent. We develop a life-cycle model of occupational choice with Epstein-Zin preferences and heterogeneous risk attitudes to examine how risk aversion interacts with entrepreneurial ability and wealth in determining entry into self-employment, the survival probability upon entry, and its aggregate implications. Counterfactual simulations show that increasing business risk reduces entry but improves selection based on entrepreneurial skills. In contrast, Germany’s “1-Euro GmbH” reform of 2008 weakened the role of risk tolerance for entry and increased participation by risk-averse individuals without compromising the mean entrepreneurial skill. |
Previous research seminars: Winter 2025, Summer 2025, Winter 2024, Summer 2024, Winter 2023, Summer 2023, Winter 2022, Summer 2022, Winter 2021
Picture: © flickr.com/uni-salzburg
